Will 5G Eat Your LAN?

Asset-Free IT

About 4 years ago, I attended a meeting and the focus of the discussion was moving as much of the on-premises gear as possible out of the customer facilities. The decision maker in that meeting stated that, if possible, he would have no physical network equipment at any of his locations. He wasn’t interested in just moving his compute and storage assets to the cloud- he wanted to eliminate the LAN and the WAN equipment. The on-going hardware and personnel support costs, issues with the WAN and the continual upgrade cycle had become burdensome for the business.

At the time, it seemed improbable to eliminate the LAN and WAN hardware. Creating an effective solution to offload the server environment alone was a big task. Migration to the cloud was picking up speed but even that hadn’t even been fully embraced as public cloud offerings began to mature. SaaS offerings were popular but these could only address a portion of the environment. At the time, few cloud-based options existed for the network infrastructure.

In addition to cloud offerings for server and compute, one potential option to consider was cellular technology for user connectivity. Mobile devices were beginning to support 4G speeds and throughput was expected to exceed 10Mbps. Unfortunately, most productivity devices like laptops did not have native 4G integration even on the roadmap. Even if they did, providers were dialing back unlimited plans and introducing data limits that would make it costly to achieve the theoretical limits required to work effectively. We left the meeting with a plan to address the compute and storage environment but agreed the LAN and WAN environments would stay in place at each facility.

Would the Discussion Be Different Today?

If that same meeting were held today with the same requirements, the outcome probably wouldn’t be much different. The server, storage and application cloud offerings have expanded providing many viable private and public cloud options. Network services have expanded and now include SD-WAN and SDN offerings to simplify management, add redundancy and reduce costs associated with the LAN and WAN. In some cases, these offerings have reduced the requirements for on-premises management software by moving it to the cloud but the hardware still sits in each facility.

Since the time of the initial discussion with the client, significant changes have taken place in the use of mobile devices. The integration of 4G into nearly every smartphone and tablet has led to greater use of these devices as business tools. Usage became so high that AT&T reported a 100,000% increase in data usage on their wireless networks from 2007 to 2014.¹ This spike in traffic has required the carriers to enforce real and artificial limits while they upgrade backhaul and core networks to handle the traffic load. As this has happened, data packages have been increased and prices have dropped.

As 4G rollouts continued, vendors added 4G options to routers. These 4G options have been used primarily for backup due to cost and coverage concerns. Consider a carrier plan that provides for 10GB of data in a month before any overage charges. This would equate to less than 31Kbps for the connection. For every additional, 3Kbps the overage cost could by $10 per month. Achieving even T1 speeds would be cost-prohibitive.

In addition to cost, many productivity devices don’t support native 4G capabilities. This lack of support requires the use of a hotspot or other device with 4G connectivity. This introduces a number of possible issues including management, troubleshooting and ease of use for users. As a result, 4G is used primarily to connect remote users when they are away from the office as opposed to being an always-on service.

5G To The Rescue?

For a few years now, 5G has been touted as a high-speed cellular option to provide up to multi-Gigabit speeds. Recent tests with providers like AT&T and Verizon have confirmed these expectations achieving speeds of up to 10Gbps.² That is up to 50x greater than the average speed of some 4G providers. Extended testing with end users in Austin, Texas with AT&T in July 2016 yielded average speeds of over 1Gbps.³ Many 5G rollouts are planned with some providers offering the service in the next 18 months with phones slated to support the technology in the next 2-3 years. With increasing speeds of cellular technology, can an organization consider functioning with 5G as the network infrastructure?

One of the issues associated with using 4G for connectivity involves the limited amount of bandwidth provided on most plans. With increased speeds, these limits could be particularly restrictive with 5G connectivity. Recently, both AT&T and Verizon have announced a move toward unlimited plans. These plans have no overage fees but may de-prioritize data when towers experience congestion after a device consumes more than 22GB of data in a month, though the device may not experience any impact if there is no congestion. This 22GB equates to an average of 67.9Kbps using a 30 day month before any potential impact could be expected. When considering numerous cloud-based applications and video, it is not uncommon for devices to consume more than 1Mbps. As long as data limits remain in place, this will still be a challenge for many productivity devices.

Another major issue with all cellular options is that there are no SLAs associated with the service. This could change over time but many cellular contracts are written as best-efforts services. Use of best efforts services are usually limited to scenarios where no other options exist or where the best efforts service is acting as a redundant component of the overall connectivity. The providers have an incentive to restore service as quickly as possible but there are no financial penalties associated with many cellular contracts.

Ease of use is an important factor for technology adoption with end users. Technology that requires multiple devices to use may require additional process, more vendors and additional support for end users. According to device manufacturers, 5G support for phones may be 3 years away. Given that nearly no laptops include integrated 4G connectivity, it could be 4 or 5 years before 5G-ready laptops are available. In the interim, hotspots could be used but supporting tethering for 5G connectivity could add requirements that exceeded those of the LAN and WAN environments in most environments.

In summary, there are a few things that need to be in place for 5G to be considered as a LAN replacement:

Providers must deliver sufficient bandwidth in a cost-effective manner
Productivity devices like laptops must be equipped with 5G capabilities
The service must be treated more like a business-class service complete with SLAs.

Due to these factors, it is unlikely 5G will be a feasible LAN replacement in anything other than very small offices for at least 3 to 5 years. Like 4G, it will be relegated to a low-cost backup option for sites with limited connectivity options. It could also be used extensively as part of SD-WAN deployments due to the high throughput capabilities coupled with the dynamic nature of traffic routing in most solutions.

The Crystal Ball

Looking out even further than 3 years, 5G could become a feasible alternative due to two primary factors. The first factor is the number of people working from home or working remotely. Studies have found anywhere from 21% to 45% of people do all or some of their work from home. Regardless of the study, there seems to be consensus that this growth will continue. These users generally are relying on best-efforts technologies for connectivity and many operate from a hotspot when on the road using 4G. They are already operating under the constraints of 4G and the move to 5G would only introduce faster speeds for these users.

The second factor is the increase in public cloud computing and Software as a Service offerings. High-speed Internet connectivity is becoming increasingly more important as the workloads move to the public cloud. Users are accessing these resources increasingly more over Internet connections instead of over private MPLS connections into private data centers. 5G can provide the Internet connection regardless of location.

Fast forward 5 to 7 years and it is conceivable that an increasingly mobile, work-from-home force could rely on 5G connectivity from laptops, tablets and smartphones to connect to cloud-based resources regardless of location. Small offices could operate with no physical LAN or WAN hardware. Employers could provide a subsidy to employees to purchase their own laptops along with 5G connectivity from a service provider. Applications could continue to move to public cloud environments from private data center environments. The dream of that CEO from 4 years ago could become reality for small organizations with no LAN, WAN, server, storage or even laptops- asset-free IT

Getting Prepared

Even for organizations that don’t adopt an asset-free approach, there are a number of things to consider for the future. One important consideration involves a BYOD (Bring Your Own Device) policy. Many organizations are allowing their employees to purchase their own devices. This requires specific policies regarding supported devices, security policies, corporate access and even policies for non-business access. Things like monitoring and procedures for lost or stolen devices must be considered. Responsibility for maintenance and support are also considerations in the BYOD world. If these policies haven’t been created or formalized, now is the time to get them in order before 5G is fully deployed.

Another topic to tackle involves considering how to provide secure access to increasingly mobile users while limiting intentional or unintentional data loss. One way to address some of these issues involves creating a virtual desktop infrastructure (VDI) to allow users to access a common set of applications across any device supporting the VDI application. Now is a good time to consider VDI to potentially enhance security while providing a common user experience across multiple devices. This could become particularly important if the trend of multiple devices per user continues.

Finally, consider exploring SD-WAN solutions that can leverage lower-cost broadband and 4G connections as part of a dynamic, high-availability solution. These solutions can reduce cost, increase availability and assist with prioritizing applications as workloads continue to shift to the cloud. Adding 5G will only increase the attractiveness of these offerings.

If you would like to discuss how TTL can assist in planning for these and other technology shifts, contact us today.